Volatility Expected for Potash Juniors Nearing Production
As junior potash producers prepare to bring production online, a new report suggests they face volatility as supply floods the market.
As junior potash producers prepare to bring production online, a new report suggests they face volatility as supply floods the market.
In an interview with Potash Investing News, Gary Deathe from Encanto Potash commented on the nuances of the potash industry as a whole, and those that are unique to Saskatchewan.
Recently, record-setting earnings have been the norm for fertilizer producers, however, late last month the markets were roiled by a quarterly earnings report by Mosaic, the world’s largest phosphate producer, which showed that profits missed analyst’s earnings per share (EPS) expectations.
India is just one of the many nations in the world dealing with a food crisis. While the country is experiencing unprecedented population growth, the amount of arable land is shrinking, thereby increasing the need for fertilizers.
Kazakhstan has long been known to contain potash reserves; however, no mine has been developed. Preliminary estimates suggest that the country, which is favourably located in close proximity to the Asian markets, may hold enough potash reserves to make it one of the world’s top producers.
Despite debt burdens and weak macroeconomics that threaten to derail the global economic recovery; the potash and phosphate markets are positioned to post a strong fourth quarter.
Low inventories have granted potash and phosphate producers plenty of reasons to hike prices, and purchasers have been bearing these increases, fearing that if they don’t agree to contracts in a timely manner they may miss out on securing supplies.
Canpotex and India have finally come to a six-month deal in which India will pay, at least at the onset, $470 per tonne including freight, for potash, approximately the same rate that China is paying.
Potash mining, like any business, is faced with scrutiny and controversy which range from environmental to political and financial concerns.
Financial services firm Citigroup believes that the recent rally in stock prices of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan and Mosaic is about to lose steam.
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