The Fight for Potash Continues
The past week has been an eventful one for the potash sector following BHP Billiton's (NYSE:BHP) unsolicited bid to takeover Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT).
The past week has been an eventful one for the potash sector following BHP Billiton's (NYSE:BHP) unsolicited bid to takeover Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (NYSE:POT).
While higher grain prices are a positive for potash producer shares, the overall near term outlook for the sector is bleak; at least according to Goldman Sachs.
According to Goldman Sachs, over the next few years global potash demand will grow around 4 percent per annum with emerging market food requirements playing the key driving factor in fertilizer demand.
Potash is taking its time to jump aboard the commodity rebound. The most recent deal for potash was settled between Canpotex and China to sell the crop nutrient for $370 per tonne, just $20 per tonne more than what the crop nutrient was fetching six months ago.
China’s recent growth slowdown put a huge dent in the commodities rally- but how will threats of stalling Chinese growth impact the potash market? Fortunately for potash, demand is not a China-only-story.
The underlying structure of the potash market is changing to reflect the new world economy, but one thing will stay the same; people need to eat. The long-term fundamentals of the potash market are supported by increasing populations around the world, and decreasing arable land.
Goldman Sachs released a report claiming that potash applications by farmers may remain below average this year. Companies were hoping for a blockbuster year, after last year’s economic collapse pushed farmers to postpone fertilizer applications.
The rapid rebound in American demand has boosted potash. The US was late to jump on board to the recovery, but when it did, it came with impressive speed.
Potash companies were hoping that the spring planting season would breathe new life into the market, unfortunately, according to Goldman Sachs that will not be the case.
The global potash market is adequately positioned for a strong second quarter. The potash market showed significant improvement in Q1 with prices stabilizing, and gradually rebounding.
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