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Fall's economy freezes potash shares
November 28, 2008 @ 6:00 am In Potash Articles
By Leia Michele Toovey- Exclusive to Potash Investing News
[1]With spring planting around the corner, many potash companies are hoping that sales of the fertilizer component will pick up, after the economic conditions over the winter have sent share values in a tail spin. Top fertilizer producers Agrium Inc [2] (TSX: AGU) and Potash Corp [3] of Saskatchewan (TSX: POT) are on the lookout for acquisitions as their industry struggles, even though their own shares have tumbled. Potash Corp is also planning a $4.8 Billion dollar expansion [4] in Saskatchewan. Construction alone is expected to bring 3000 jobs to small towns Lanigan and Rocanville.
For potash sales, the fourth quarter is seasonally weak this year as Latin American farmers are suffering from lack of credit [5] while EU and North American farmers are waiting to see if fertilizer prices fall. The price outlook remains cautiously optimistic given both Japan and Korea has settled first-half 2009 contracts at over $900 a tonne.
Company News
Israel Chemicals [6] (ICL) reported on Tuesday a surge in quarterly net profit and sales, but the fertilizer and specialty chemicals maker faces softer demand in coming quarters. ICL, the second-largest company on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, said its fertilizer division was not affected significantly by the global economic crisis in the third quarter, but believes in the short term there will be a drop in demand for fertilizer. For the long term, management believes that depleted inventories will lead to a return in demand for fertilizer, and therefore an increase in prices. Recently, several competitors have announced plans to reduce production of potash and phosphate fertilizers, and however, because ICL can store potash and fertilizer in the desert for virtually no cost they will continue operations.
Amazon Mining Holding has staked a large mineral occurrence of a potash bearing rock known as verdete slate which is believed to be uniquely suited to Brazil's fertilizer needs. The Cerrado Verde project ("Cerrado Verde") consists of 84 claims covering 165,069 hectares, in the heart of the country's agricultural region. Brazil is one of the world's leading exporters of agricultural products and this sector is a large and growing contributor to Brazil's GDP. Examples of major exported cash crops include soybean, corn, sugar, and coffee. It is also a world leader in renewable energy through sugarcane and eucalyptus. All of these agricultural products require usage of fertilizers in order to ensure optimum yields. With its large and growing agricultural sector, Brazil is currently the world's second largest importer of potash behind China. Imports account for 90% of the country's needs. Record high potash prices reached in 2008 ($1100 per tonne) combined with logistic costs make Brazil one of the most expensive places in the world to buy potash. This forces many Brazilian farmers to use sub-optimal concentrations of fertilizer for their crops. The company believes they are in a unique position to receive financing from government and other alternative sources, and because of the link between potash and food supply it will continue to have strong pricing through an economic downturn.
Within the next few weeks, pending final BLM approval, Intrepid Potash Inc. expects to begin its HB Solar Evaporation Potash Production project, a solution mining process. Intrepid will pump brine into the old mine to recover millions of tonnes of potash that would otherwise have remained undeveloped. The potash-enriched solution will then be pumped into special ponds, where solar power will evaporate the water and allow Intrepid to recover the potash. Preparing for the solution mine will cost between $78 and 88 million and required dozens of contractor positions. The entire mine won't be used, instead four areas of the mine; the lowest areas, will be the first to be filled. It will take three to four years to fill the mine, and then about 28 years to complete the solution mining process. The effort will net Intrepid an estimated additional 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes per year of potash.
Shares in Russian potash miner Uralkali [7] plunged more than 30 percent in London on Thursday after it slashed output in the final two months of this year and warned it could reduce cash revenue by $650 million. "The turmoil in the global financial markets has triggered a drop in demand for crops, thereby hindering farmers' capacity to purchase planned volumes of fertilizer," Uralkali said in as statement. Uralkali shares, beloved by investors for the company's fat profit margin, were dumped earlier this month after the state re-opened an investigation into a 2006 mine accident [8]. As its shares went into freefall, the company said it would face an 'enormous financial burden' if the state sought damages and its future could be in doubt.
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URLs in this post:
[1] Image: http://potashinvestingnews.com/files/2008/11/springthaw.jpg
[2] Agrium Inc: http://www.agrium.com/
[3] Potash Corp: http://www.potashcorp.com/
[4] $4.8 Billion dollar expansion: http://www.newstalk980.com/story/20081126/9059
[5] lack of credit: http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2527091420081125
[6] Israel Chemicals: http://www.icl-group.com/Pages/default.aspx
[7] Uralkali: http://www.uralkali.com/en/
[8] investigation into a 2006 mine accident: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/1009/42/372578.htm
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