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Too soon to tell?

October 6, 2008 @ 8:29 pm In Potash Articles

By Daniella D'Alimonte - Exclusive to Potash Investing News [1]

Even with the current market uncertainties, a bullish outlook for fertilizer giants such as Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (TSX: POT) and Agrium (TSX: AGU) remains unchanged, according to a recent Financial Post report [2].

The continued high prices, relative to last year, in addition to a promising supply and demand are key pointers.

While target prices are now lower than originally estimated, it has been brought on by the current higher market risk, commodity sell-offs, and distressed liquidations by some investors, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Fai Lee in an interview with Peter Koven.

Lee's target on Agrium has dropped to $105 a share from $145 and to $250 from $375 for Potash Corp.

"While fertilizer stocks have traded down with the broad commodity stock sell-off, we expect sector valuations to eventually rebound, albeit at a slower place than the recent past," he wrote in notes to clients

However, on Thursday, Potash Corp. shares took a brutal hit, falling $35.50 to $93.31. It is now down 59 per cent from the $225.45 a share it reached in June.

Agrium also took a hit, falling 23 per cent on Thursday. It is currently under $42 per share.

A day after Athabasca Potash Inc. (TSX: API) released positive reports from its Burr project in Saskatchewan, a stir was caused in the market. The news of its estimated 156.8 million tonnes of indicated and inferred potash resources, a jump up from its previously estimated 30 million tonnes, was initially glanced over in the heat of Monday's economic uproar. However, as things settled on Tuesday, people took notice and the company's shares shot up 30 per cent and closed that day at $3.78.

The price continued to rise into Wednesday, closing at $3.95 per share, but has since dropped back down to around $3.18.

The company is taking its time, putting in a lot of hard work and expects to build the next newly developed from scratch mine, said Dawn Zhou, chief executive of Athabasca to Canwest.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS), a Minnesota-based producer of potash and phosphate crop nutrients, has released its first quarterly report [3] for the 2009 fiscal year, ending August 31. It noted a net profit of $1.2 billion, or $04.65 per share which is an increase from last year's first quarter of $305.5 million, or $0.69 per share.

An increase in selling prices from the previous year as well as a $86.7 million gain from foreign currency transactions were noted as key factors. Potential gains were offset by the rise in raw material costs, a rise in Canadian resource taxes and royalties, as well as $114.8 million in net unrealized mark-to-market derivative losses.

"Against the backdrop of volatile global markets, we are well positioned financially, strategically and operationally to serve our customers worldwide and execute on the strong, long-term fundamentals in the agricultural sector," said Jim Prokopanko, president and chief executive officer for the company in its press release.

Mosaic is currently sitting at about $40.88 per share. It fell 41 per cent on Thursday.

At a recent Toronto job fair [4], Brad Wall, Premier of Saskatchewan, made efforts to promote employment in Saskatchewan. With an aging workforce, many industries within the province will be in need of workers in the coming years.

Mosaic has an expected 1000 employees retiring over the next five years. Potash Corp. is planning to hire over 500 people in the next two years for a range of jobs including labourers, engineers, human resources and equipment operators.


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URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://potashinvestingnews.com/files/2008/10/standout310x210.jpg

[2] report: http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=843721

[3] report: http://ir.mosaicco.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=70455&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1204608&highlight=

[4] job fair: http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2008/09/30/f-saskatchewan-jobs.html

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